2010 NHL Draft: Taylor v. Tyler

The marvelous thing about sucking in sports is that your league rewards you for it the next year. The Edmonton Oilers sucked last year—majorly, in fact—to the point that there’s not even a hint of tanking. But since the worst team gets the best odds at the NHL draft lottery (which they actually won), as a hometown Oilers fan, my nipples are bursting with excitement. I’m not speaking on behalf of all Edmontonians, but if I have to watch another NHL season where the Oilers are once again fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot, I’m going to turn myself into an alcoholic. Picking up the first overall draft pick is a step towards illustriousness; just ask the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Chicago Blackhawks, and the Washington Capitals.

Having said that, it would be so simple if there were a consensus #1 among hockey experts. In most years, there’s a Sidney Crosby, a Patrick Kane, or an Alexander Ovechkin to simplify things. This year, there are two possible courses of action to confuse my beloved Oilers: left-winger Taylor Hall and center Tyler Seguin. I admit, it’s a terrific problem to have, and both players could very well end up being the Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux of this generation; but in sports, there are no guarantees. For instance, the Ottawa Senators picked Alexandre Daigle in 1993 when they could’ve had Chris Pronger; the Atlanta Thrashers picked Patrik Stefan in 1999 when they could’ve had either Sedin twin; and the New York Islanders picked Rick DiPietro in 2000 when they could’ve had Dany Heatley. I would hate for the Oilers to suck that bad and not get the best player available.

The awful thing about NHL drafts is that no one really knows anything about these prospects. Unlike the NBA or the NFL where there’s actually some interest to their feeder systems, no one really cares about hockey minor leagues. Yeah, there’s also the yearly World Junior Hockey Tournament but its format is so short that it’s not really the best showcase of draft talent (remember Marty Murray? Or Igor Grigorenko? Me neither). Thus, I’m just going to have to take the scouting reports on both Hall and Seguin and assume that they are even talent-wise. How do you pick between them then? Let’s shake it down in a (t5!) seven bullet-point series.




CREDENTIALS

Taylor Hall: OHL and CHL Rookie of the Year; OHL Champion and Memorial Cup winner in 2009 and 2010; Wayne Gretzky 99 Award in 2009 for OHL Playoff MVP; Stafford Smythe Memorial Trophy in 2009 and 2010 for Memorial Cup Tournament MVP; Eddie Powers Memorial Trophy for OHL scoring champ in 2009-2010; Ed Chynoweth Trophy winner as Memorial Cup scoring leader in 2010; Gold medalist at 2008 IIHF World U18 Championships; Gold medalist at 2008 Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament; Silver medalist at 2010 IIHF World U20 Championship.

Tyler Seguin: 2009-2010 Eddie Powers Memorial Trophy winner for OHL scoring champ; 2009-2010 Red Tilson Trophy for most outstanding player in the OHL, 2009-2010 CHL Top Draft Prospect Award for top eligible prospect for the NHL Entry Draft from the CHL; Gold medalist at 2009 Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament; Gold Medalist at 2009 World U-17 Hockey Challenge.

Team Taylor-1 v. Team Tyler-0

PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES

Both players are pretty much identical at roughly 6’1” and 185 lbs, but Taylor Hall just has the hockey look. Looking at his pictures and watching his interviews, he always has that dazed, mouth-open, almost drooling demeanor, and you get the impression that in his head, all he’s thinking is “ME SCORE GOALS, ME SCORE GOALS”. Seguin looks like a hockey Michael Cera.

Team Taylor-2 v. Team Tyler-0

PLAYER COMPARISON

According to thehockeywriters.com, Taylor Hall reminds them of “a morph or hybrid of Pavel Bure and Mark Messier”. From the same source, Tyler Seguin resembles Steve Yzerman. Although the thought of a Moose Rocket thrills me, Stevie Y is a winner. Maybe when Seguin’s career is over, he can also govern a Team Canada that can win gold in the Olympics.

Team Taylor-2 v. Team Tyler-1

INTRACONTINENTAL IMPACT

Taylor Hall’s YouTube-worthy goals will create buzz for the Oilers, and maybe other players would actually want to get traded to Edmonton as oppose to out of Edmonton. Moreover, the name “Taylor Hall” is terribly marketable. It’s delightful to have the #1 pick overall picks of both the NBA and the NHL actually rhyme (Wall and Hall). And because of the Twilight series, the name “Taylor” is so hot right now.

Team Taylor-3 v. Team Tyler-1

STRENGTH OF TEAMMATES/STRENGTH OF COMPETITION

These two statistics are a terrific start for advanced NHL analyses but unfortunately, it’s still in its development stage. Searching for these numbers for the minor leagues is probably wishful thinking. Let’s assume that the strength of competition for both players is “equal” because they belong in the same league (it’s obviously not because both Hall and Seguin didn’t play against their own teams).

As far as Strength of Teammates go, let’s just say that out of the 240 domestic players rated by NHL Central Scouting, Hall played with two who belong in that list (including Cam Fowler who was rated #5). That doesn’t even include New Jersey Devils prospect Adam Henrique, who scored 20 goals in the 2010 OHL playoffs to win the Wayne Gretzky 99 Award. Tyler Seguin only played with one ranked forward: Austin Levi who was #156. It’s safe to assume that Hall had a hand to get to where he is, while Seguin pretty much had to do it on his own.

Team Taylor-3 v. Team Tyler-2

CENTER v. WINGER

The biggest argument for Tyler Seguin is that the Oilers are currently chock full of wingers. If Seguin is selected, he can fit comfortably betwixt their two best players: Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. Moreover, Edmonton’s two upcoming prospects, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, are also both wingers. Natural centers also generally have more value because they have more responsibilities: they have to be two-way players and they have to win face-offs. Taylor Hall has mentioned that he can also play center if the situation calls for it, but he wouldn’t be as good as someone who has been playing that position his entire hockey life.

Team Taylor-3 v. Team Tyler-3

GOAL SCORER v. PLAYMAKER

Like I said above, the NHL is falling behind by the lack of advanced sabermetric-type statistics, and therefore, there’s no quantitative information to validate which style has more value. We need a stat to determine if a goal scorer can yield better assists numbers from lesser players, or if a playmaker can yield more goals from players that can’t score if given a different line mate, or which player type can yield more wins. Math geeks need to develop a formula equivalent to baseball’s VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, and WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player.

So my qualitative opinion: a hockey game is resolved in goals the last time I checked. The habitual reasoning is that playmakers can make everyone better but that just means that he has to rely on other skaters to get his. There’s no such thing as an “unassisted assist”. Theoretically, goal scorers can produce without anybody’s help. To expand this logic in a salary cap world, goal scorers can accumulate 50 goals for his team all on his own, which means that a team is getting that production with a cost of a player’s salary. By contrast, if a playmaker makes “someone better”, a team will have to reward not only the playmaker, but also the playmaker-enhanced goal scorer.

In short, I’m going with Hall on this one.

Team Taylor-4 v. Team Tyler-3

You can't argue with numbers, and it shows that if I was general manager, I’m picking Taylor Hall apparently. Again, I think Edmonton rocks it either way, but the Oilers are a long way from being in contention. Whether it’s Hall or Seguin, they need to surround him with awesome complements. Ideally, they do that by sucking again next season so that they’re in the same position again for next year’s draft. They also have to resist the urge to acquire expensive veterans like Ottawa’s Jason Spezza or Montreal’s Andrei Kostitsyn, and they need to trade away their massive contracts like Shawn Horcoff, Sheldon Souray, and Tom Gilbert. One thing’s for sure, it’s fun to be an Oiler fan again.