Sports: Discuss: '08 NBA Preview

Three Guys in “Put Up or Shut Up” Mode
Tracy McGrady, Houston
His point production has seen an almost constant decline since the 2002-2003 season when he led the league in scoring, but that should be irrelevant anyhow. We know that he can score; we know he can string up a 22-game win streak during the regular season; we want to know if he can win in the playoffs.

Now he should have the right pieces to contend for a ring: a great championship caliber coach, a 7’6” Chinese Rik Smits, Luis Scola who outplayed Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh in the Olympic semifinals, two behemoth perimeter defenders in Ron Artest and Shane Battier, and a scrappy bench. If he doesn’t win now, he’ll won't have any excuses left.

Shawn Marion, Miami
He wanted out of Phoenix where he had a Hall of Fame player getting him easy baskets and now, he’s nowhere close to getting a deal done with Miami. The problem is he wants superstar treatment but the GM’s around the league doesn’t want to dish out superstar dollars to a sad guy that can’t create his own shot. If a contract extension is not drawn up soon, he’ll be a free agent next offseason. It looks like he’s going to be traded to another where he’ll be unhappy again.

Dwight Howard, Orlando
He had a breakout season last year but forgot to show up against Detroit in the conference semi-finals. He just seemed to have a “I’m just happy to be here” mentality to the playoffs last year. This is his fifth season and he needs to stop smiling all the time or else, he’s going to be this generation’s David Robinson. Every year, he’s going to face someone else who is going to want it more—just like how The Admiral ran into a Barkley or an Olajuwon—and that someone will continually take his title hopes away from him.


Five Guys Ready to Make the Leap
Danny Granger, Indiana
Ask casual fans of the NBA and more than half of them have never heard of him. He quietly posted 23.1 points after the All-Star break. The Jermaine O’Neal-T.J. Ford trade will benefit him the most: not only will he the franchise player now that O’Neal is gone, but he has a penetrating point guard that can get him open looks.

Al Jefferson, Minnesota
He is the second best player in the KG trade and one of the top 5 low post scorers in the league. Having Mike Miller will make the defenses he faces think twice about double teaming him.

Al Horford, Atlanta
The second guy in this list named Al was already a force during his rookie season and in his first playoff appearance, averaging a double-double in the first round against the Celtics’ championship defense. Now that the Hawks have no bench and their starters are entrusted to play 48 minutes per game, expect his sophomore numbers to blow up.

Luis Scola, Houston
During the Olympics playing for Argentina, he was the second-best big man behind Pau Gasol. In the semi-finals against U.S.A., he outplayed perennial all-stars Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh. Look for him to translate his international success to an NBA one.


Four Underrated Offseason Transaction
Corey Maggette, Golden State
His relocation was overshadowed by the Baron Davis move and the Elton Brand move, but people neglect the fact that he could blow up playing Nellie Ball this year. Coach Don Nelson loves guys with incalculable athleticism to abuse mismatches. Monta Ellis going down should open doors for him also.

Matt Barnes, Phoenix
For the Suns, he could play Shawn Marion-type basketball without the scowling and the ugly jump shot. He runs the floor, plays defense, and drain’s 3’s. In addition, he can obtain essential rest minutes for 35-year old Grant Hill, so that he’s healthy come playoff time.

Mikael Pietrus, Orlando
He should be playing the Shane Battier role for Orlando, guarding the best wing player and draining 3’s. Only, he’s going to be doing it for 40 minutes because they don’t have anyone but JJ Reddick to back him up.

Roger Mason, San Antonio
He’s a savvy free-agent pick-up for the Spurs considering Finley’s age and Ginobili’s injury. He’s a fantastic outside shooter that will probably start for San Antonio; when Ginobili comes back, he’ll still be coming off the bench and Mason’s name is still going to be announced during pre-game introductions


Three Overrated Stories
Loss of James Posey
It’s true that he was an essential piece in the Celtics’ amazing title run, but what everyone has failed to recognize is that every one of Boston’s young guys improved this season. Rondo’s going to mimic Tony Parker’s season after he won his first ring and will be one of the best defenders at the point guard position; Perkins and Powe will be better at the low block; and a healthy Tony Allen will be playing stellar perimeter defense.

Spurs odd number-year championships
Quick question: 2003, 2005, 2007, ???. If you’ve answered “2009”, then you’re forgetting that Ginobili’s injured, Duncan’s a year older, and a lot of teams getting better since the last time they won a championship.

Phoenix is too old
Steve Nash is 34, Raja Bell is 32, and Shaquille O’Neal and Grant Hill are both 36. The window of opportunity is closing real soon but here’s why they still have a sleeper chance to win it all this season: (1) Amare Stoudemire has proven that he plays better as a 4, and he will all season with Shaq and Robin Lopez at center; (2) Shaq can play the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s role for the ’88 Showtime Lakers, a team that beat Bad Boy Pistons for the championship; (3) Matt Barnes, as discussed above; and (4) D’Antoni taking his “seven seconds or less” offense to New York with him opens the door for Terry Porter’s slower paced system, which should benefit Nash, Hill, and Shaq.


Three teams that will have a subpar year but in a few years, lookout!
Sacramento
Kevin Martin is a great offensive talent that can score at will, but he’s better at a complimentary role than a role as the franchise player. They’re going to be a bad team this year, so if they get lucky in the lottery, and if they can draft correctly and get a guy they can revolve their pieces around, then we should see them back in the playoffs.

Memphis
They’ve gotten criticized heavily for GM Chris Wallace’s blunders, but they actually have a lot of tremendous young athletes that haven’t realized their upside yet. Rudy Gay has James Worthy numbers except with three-point range. When Mike Conley, Jr. decides he wants to get in the lane, not many can stop him. Marc Gasol should shake off the “Gerald Wilkins/Harvey Grant” tag as “the brother of a more accomplished NBA player”. Rookie OJ Mayo is playing like this generation’s John Starks. Hakim Warrick. Kyle Lowry. Javaris Crittenton. Even Darko Milicic. If they get most of these pieces to stay, they should be a scary team in the near future.

Chicago
Derrick Rose has impressed this preseason, proving he’s the real deal. If they can get a good player from an inevitable Ben Gordon trade, and if Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah take steps forward, they should be one of the elite teams in the East in a couple of years. This year, they’ll be a below-.500 team but that should be good enough for the eight spot in their conference.


Five teams I’m excited about but have no chance of winning the championship
Portland
They’re like an underground musical act, like a Vampire Weekend or an M.I.A., which gets a cult following in the internet because they’re exciting and new. Then, the cult following gets too big and the rest of the world notice how good they are and jump on the bandwagon. Right now, The Blazers are being talked about unlimitedly in blogs and in forums, a buzz that bubbled up last year because of the Greg Oden draft. By January, the whole world’s going to be wearing Blazers jerseys and hats.

They have ten young players that can contend against any team and coach Nate McMillain is poised to divide them into two units, like an intramural team, that get equal playing of time. There are only three games at opening night, and if my girlfriend is only letting me watch one game all night, I’m picking Portland vs. the Lakers over Boston vs. Cleveland. That’s how excited I am to see this team on the court.

Toronto
The Raptors don’t know how lucky they are to have a whole country erratically rooting for them. Here’s what you will get from a discussion with a Canadian basketball fan: (1) They want Vince Carter’s foot to fall off from the ankle, (2) Jose Calderon is the best point guard in the league that no one is talking about, (3) Chris Bosh is an MVP candidate every year, and (4) Sam Mitchell is an underappreciated coach.

I’m excited because the Jermaine O’Neal-T.J. Ford trade works because of three things: it conclusively gives the car keys to Calderon, it moves Bosh to power forward where he’ll create havoc match-ups, and it gives them an inside defensive presence if O’Neal is healthy.

Miami
Wade is going to be slaughterous this season (and I spent about two minutes trying to think of the best adjective that describes Wade’s ’08-’09). He will be second in the MVP race, behind Lebron. He’s going to finish first in steals, and if they ever kept count on breakaway dunks, he’ll lead that stat too. Teams aren’t going to want to face him in the first round of the playoffs. Plus, Michael Beasley will be the runaway rookie of the year. They’re in dire need of a point guard to do anything more than a second-round bout.

LA Clippers

Baron Davis will playing mad every night because Elton Brand abandoned him. Marcus Camby will be playing mad every night because Denver traded him. Chris Kaman will be playing mad because he’s NBA’s Hulk Hogan. Rookie Eric Gordon will be playing mad every night because no one’s talking about him. Ricky Davis will be mad every night…”mad” as in “crazy”, not “mad” as in “angry”.

With that said, there’s no team in the league I wouldn’t want to watch in 2008. Even the league’s bottom-feeders give me a reason to tune-in: Memphis to see Gay-Mayo, Charlotte for the last chance to see if Adam Morrison can live up to Larry Bird comparisons, OKC for Kevin Durant, the Knicks to see if D’Antoni can turn them into the new Suns, Minnesota to watch Jefferson in the low post. Out of the 30 teams, there are only two teams I’m less than excited to see—New Jersey and Indiana.

Philadelphia
I stand by my original remark that Elton Brand in Philly won’t drastically make them better. The last time Brand and Andre Miller were together in the same team, they led the Clippers to 27 wins. Philly with Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert, and Thaddeus Young isn’t considerably better than the ’02-’03 Clippers with Lamar Odom, Corey Maggette, Michael Olowakandi, and Quentin Richardson.

I’m excited because there’s a great chance I could be wrong and they can battle Cleveland and Boston for the Eastern crown.


Eight teams that can win the championship
San Antonio
They can win, not because of numerical patterns, but because they’re the San Antonio Spurs. You can never count them out even if outside the big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, they’re running with Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas, Jacque Vaughn and Ime Udoka.

Detroit
The same reason the Spurs are in this list. Minus Ben Wallace, They still have the same pieces the last time they hoisted the trophy. The youth movement of Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson definitely improved. It all falls on new Michael Curry if they can go deep in the playoffs. Hey, if Doc Rivers can get a championship, anyone can.

Utah
They have eight potential free agents. A couple of them are getting traded by deadline and my bet is on Kirilenko. If they get a player that can play a Jeff Hornacek role to Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer’s Stockton and Malone reincarnation and if they don’t run into a Michael Jordan type performance from someone (from Kobe, Lebron, Pierce, Paul, McGrady, Ginobili), they have a chance.

Los Angeles
They’re much-beloved second unit is colossally overrated because they overachieved last year to say “f-you!” to Kobe and his preseason pout. Can you expect the same production from Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Vladimir Radmanovic, Luke Walton, and even Andrew Bynum? My prediction is Bynum, Farmar, and Trevor Ariza will be better and contribute abundantly. Pau Gasol at power forward is exponentially better than Pau Gasol at center. So it all hinges on contract year Lamar Odom. Is he starting? If he is, will he be unhappy because he’s not getting enough shots? If not, will he be the Sixth Man of the year or will he be unhappy coming off the bench? Is he getting traded? Is he getting a contract extension?

New Orleans
It all depends if the field can stop Chris Paul lob passes to Tyson Chandler and David West. And that’s easier said than done.

Boston

To those who have doubts that Boston will have enough “ubuntu” to duplicate their stellar season last year, I say to them this: Kevin Garnett is still on the team! Sure, it’s certainly more difficult to defend a championship than to win one because most players lose their hunger and focus. But, KG isn’t most players. He’s the most driven player since Jordan, and just like MJ with the Bulls, he won’t allow the 2008 Celtics to dilly-dally through these games.

But the question is, can he and the Celtics stay in fifth gear for another 100 games? They barely had enough last year and if it wasn’t for Paul Pierce’s heroics against Cleveland, the citizens would still be wondering if Garnett, Pierce, and Ray Allen have what it takes to win one ring.

Cleveland

Cleveland’s ride to the NBA playoffs is going to be a bumpy one because there is just way too many question marks on this team. The only other sure thing (other than King James) is offseason pick-up Mo Williams, but even he’s not the Pippen they’ve been searching for Lebron. He’s more like Byron Scott to Lebron’s Magic—a guy that can hit open shots and run the floor.

Once they get into the playoffs, however, they have a phenomenal chance to win every series. NBA Playoffs cater to the team with the best player and Cleveland has the best player in the planet at this moment. Plus, tasting the sweet nectar of victory during the Olympics makes him salivating for an NBA championship.

Houston
I’ve mentioned above that it’s “put up or shut up” for T-Mac, but I emphasize that there are no excuses left for this Rockets team. The big three of McGrady, Yao Ming, and Ron Artest, BARRING INJURY, rival’s Boston’s big three, the Lakers’ big three, and the Spurs’ big three. Their defense has the ability to slow down Paul, D-Will, Pierce, and Lebron. Their only line up flaw is in backup point guard.

But all this giddiness is from looking at Houston on paper and, as we all know, championships aren’t won on paper. Not only do they have to coexist together—and chemistry has been a question mark early on—but also, luck has to be on their side so that they stay healthy enough to make a run for the ring. Boston showed last year what happens when players’ careers are on the chopping block; I’m predicting the same achievement from the injury-ridden Houston Rockets.

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